Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek Prediction: will Świątek’s Slam form overcome Alexandrova’s New York surge?

Alexandrova vs Świątek Prediction | US Open 2025 R16

The Round of 16 at the US Open 2025 marks the meeting of two finalists with very different styles and successes – Ekaterina Alexandrova’s flat, early aggression versus Iga Świątek’s elite level of consistency. This match is scheduled for Louis Armstrong Stadium. Below you can find the latest insights regarding players performance, as well as see the players past matches and tactical edges to use on the pre-match and live markets.

🇷🇺 Ekaterina Alexandrova (form & statistics)

With a 35-18 record in 2025, Ekaterina Alexandrova of Russia and is the 12th ranked player in the world enters the US Open. She was runner-up at Monterrey (losing to Diana Shnaider). She claimed her fifth career WTA singles title at the Upper Austria Ladies Linz (defeating Dayana Yastremska 6-2, 3-6, 7-5). Her win-loss on hard courts outdoors is roughly her full-season figure; as a whole, she has demonstrated accurate baseline hitting and improved movement. Alexandrova has moved through the US Open to the fourth round with wins over Wang Xinyu and Laura Siegemund. Alexandrova’s serve-to-win ratios combined with her serve high pressure-point performance suggest she converts important points when serving strongly. Nonetheless, her return game continues to be a variable—able to show high-risk aggressive returns but at times inconsistent against structured defense.

🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek (form & statistics)

As the second-ranked player in the world, Iga Świątek has already amassed a 2025 record of 49-12, clinching two titles: Wimbledon, where she decisively closed out the final 6-0, 6-0 against Anisimova, and Cincinnati, which she won without dropping a set, even against Jasmine Paolini in the final. Alongside this, Iga earned her 50th victory of the season at the US Open by beating Emiliana Arango 6-1, 6-2, and later had to fight Anna Kalinskaya 7-6(2), 6-4, after clawing back from 1-5 down in the first set. Her surface versatility—Slams on grass and hardcourts—and return efficiency marks her as dependable in crucial moments. Her performance statistics (win-loss, titles, clutch moments) mark her as the event favourite, especially on hardcourts where she maintains tactical consistency and pressure conversion.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek Head-to-Head Statistics

Świątek leads their H2H rivalry 4–2. Alexandrova’s standout win came at Miami 2024 (31 winners over two sets), while Świątek won their 2025 tournament meeting at Bad Homburg.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek Betting Tips and Odds

• Świątek to win 2–0 sets — She leads H2H 4–2 and has 49–12 in 2025 with Wimbledon + Cincinnati titles. (1.73 odds)
• Alexandrova +6.5 games — Her two US Open wins (6–2, 6–2; 6–0, 6–1) show she can keep sets close. (1.32 odds)
• Over 21.5 games — Świątek’s 7–6, 6–4 vs Kalinskaya indicates breaker potential. (2.04 odds)
• Both players 5+ service holds — Alexandrova’s flat serve vs Świątek’s counter game creates balanced holds
• Alexandrova set — If her first-serve % is above 65%, she can steal a set. (1.99 odds)

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek Match Prediction

I see Świątek as the clear underlying favourite—Slam expertise, consistent defense, and return dominance give her structural control.

My top 3 betting picks:

📌Świątek to win in straight sets @ 1.73 odds on Bet365

📌Over 19.5 total games @ 1.61 odds on 1xbet

📌Alexandrova +4.5 @ 1.92 odds on Betway