Naomi Osaka vs Coco Gauff Prediction: A blockbuster fourth-round rematch at Arthur Ashe Stadium — form, H2H and three sharp betting angles

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01 Sep 2025 20:00
Tennis Grand Slam US Open New York USA Round 16
Date: 01-Sept-2025
Kickoff: 20:10
Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium New York 
Raphael George
01 Sep 2025
12:17
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
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Odds 1,734
Bet Type Coco Gauff to win
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Naomi Osaka vs Coco Gauff: Prediction for the Match on September 1st, 2025

Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff reignite their rivalry with everything on the line in the quarterfinals at the US Open 2025 in New York. Coco’s ascent to the title and Osaka’s return trajectory culminate in a defining match at Arthur Ashe Stadium — a meeting characterized by Grand Slam experience, differing playing methods, and strategic depth. Continue with the article for thoughtfully analyzed Naomi Osaka vs. Coco Gauff prediction and form checks, paired with data-driven guidance expressed in 5 succinct betting tips to prepare readers for the Round of 16.

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Osaka’s prepares for the US Open as the 24th ranked WTA player, and the 23rd seed, having recently returned from maternity leave. She is a four-time major champion, and has a record of 27-12 this year. She also made the final in the National Bank Open in Montreal, where she lost to Victoria Mboko 2-6, 6-4, 6-1. Kasatkina fell to Osaka at Flushing Meadows, where she refined her improve technique, and served more consistently, beating her 6-0, 4-6, 6-3. With two titles at Flushing Meadows in 2018 and 2020, and two Australian titles in 2019 and 2021, she has renowned big-match experience. Coaching changes and a series of deeper runs in the hard-court swing indicate improved match sharpness, but unpredictable drops and physical issues since Montreal continue to be concerns. She still uses heavy and aggressive returns to start hard-court rallies, and against Gauff, she'll aim to end points quickly and attack the American’s serve.

Ranking third on the globe, and the third seed for the tournament, is an American favourite to win because of the breakout season they have had, US Open Coco Gauff. By the age of 21, she has already won a Grand Slam title from defending against Aryna Sabalenka in a three-set victory, which only goes to show how determined she is to earn her clay-court credentials. With far superior court coverage and an improved serve, she made light work of Magdalena Fręch 6-3, 6-1 in the second round and cruised through to the fourth. Gauff's form in 2025 is a blend of the big-match experience she earned with the 2023 US Open title and growing tactical maturity; she excels in return aggression and breakpoint conversion. Gauff can perhaps be under threat on serve with pressure, but her movement, forecourt punch and composure in clutch moments tip the scale in her favour. At Arthur Ashe, she will have to rely on her depth and the transition play to prevent Osaka from controlling the pace. 

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Gauff leads the head-to-head 3-2. Their last meeting came in Beijing 2024 when Osaka retired with a lower-back injury. 

  • Coco Gauff to Win (1.734) – Higher seed, better 2025 form, and leads H2H 3–2.
  • Both Players to Win a Set (2.27) – Osaka’s power ensures resistance; most of their meetings have gone long.
  • Over 21.5 Games (1.885) – Expect swings; Osaka’s last match was a three-set battle.
  • Gauff to Break Serve 3+ Times (1.80) – Her return game has been excellent this season.
  • Osaka Over 9.5 Winners (1.70) – Aggressive baseline play makes this a reliable market.

I see this as a classic clash of power and precision where Coco Gauff’s improving serve and elite return game narrowly outweighs Naomi Osaka’s raw power and Grand Slam instincts.

My best 3 betting tips:- 

📌Coco Gauff to win @ 1.734 odds on Bet365

📌Over 21.5 games @ 1.885 odds on Betway

📌Both players to win a set @ 2.27 odds on 1xbet 

Odds
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Odds 1,734
Bet Type Coco Gauff to win
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Odds 1,885
Bet Type Over 21.5 games
Bonus 250 USD
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Odds 2,27
Bet Type Both players to win a set
Bonus 100 EUR
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