Aryna Sabalenka vs Carson Branstine: Sabalenka Eyes Fast Start Against Challenger Branstine

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30 Jun 2025 16:00
Canada
Canada
Tennis, Grand Slam, Wimbledon, London, Great Britain, Round 128  
30/06/2025, 16:00  
Court 1, London, England
Grass Court
Raphael George
28 Jun 2025
12:28
All time statistics:
1929
1167
96
60.43%
Statistics
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Odds 1,64
Bet Type Sabalenka to win (-6) Handicap
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Carson Branstine: Prediction for the Match on June 30, 2025

The 2025 Wimbledon Championship is currently underway, and all attention is on Court 1, as the World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka faces Canadian qualifier Carson Branstine in a gripping Round of 128 clash. This match will pit one of the most powerful and consistent performers in the game against an underdog determined to make her mark on the biggest stage of tennis. With grass-court form, Wimbledon betting odds, and player momentum all being factors, this match truly offers a combination of star power and upsetting possibility. There is going to be very little downtime as these two garner pace, accuracy, and pressure to begin Sabalenka's title journey while Branstine tries to stir up a Wimbledon fairytale.

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The World No.1 Sabalenka stays the strongest force on tour, boasting an 81.3-% win rate in 2025 as well as a 42–8 overall record. On grass, she stands at 2–1 for the season, having triumphed in the quarterfinals against Elena Rybakina and having fallen in the semifinals against Vondrousova in Berlin. She harnesses raw power in her serve, managing an average of 3.28 aces per match, with a good first-serve percentage of 63.9. So far this year, Sabalenka has taken trophies at Madrid, Miami, and Brisbane, along with suffering three Grand Slam runners-up finishes—losing to Coco Gauff at Roland Garros and Madison Keys at the Australian Open. She has posted training clips on social media highlighting her preparations for grass, and recently, she commented on her motivation to capture a first Wimbledon title in an interview in June. It is hence on her readiness, both mentally and physically, on grass that the prospect of a lengthy run by the favorite will be hooked on.

The qualifier Carson Branstine — ranking around No. 197—is now technically holding the career-high ranking previously held by someone else at No. 190 on May 26, 2025. The 24-year-old right-hander boasts a career-winning percentage of 66 percent when considering ITF and WTA events, but even better, he has a 75 percent countryside grass-win percentage (6-2). Earlier this year, she reached the final of the WTA 125 in Cancun and, therefore, continues to improve. This is her first Wimbledon main draw in her career. Her recent form on grass shows how well she adapts to this surface, but with her volume of matches (24–14 career), she still remains fairly modest. Branstine posted a video on Instagram this week while training on Court 1, signaling that she is full of confidence and feel-ready for the task at hand. With no high-profile interviews so far, she has quietly been focused on making her mark. A first-round upset would complete the breakthrough the player is already experiencing this season; however, she will need to hold onto her early momentum through Finals Day.

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Sabalenka and Branstine have never met-on from the tour, making the Wimbledon second-round match their first-ever meeting. No H2H record or streaks stand between them as of entering into Court 1 middle. The lack of prior statistical numbers renders this match a blank slate between the top seed and the grass expert qualifier.

  • Sabalenka wins in straight sets — She’s closed 69 % of her matches in straight sets in 2025.
  • Over 2.5 sets in Sabalenka's grass matches — 2 of her 3 grass events this year went three sets, signaling potential for a tight opening clash.
  • Branstine to win a set — Her 75 % grass win rate suggests a competitive level; at least one set could go her way.
  • High ace count — Sabalenka averages 3.28 aces per match—look for serve-heavy scoring.

I’m predicting a Sabalenka straight‑sets win, but with opportunities for Branstine to push in at least one set.

Sabalenka to win (-6) Handicap @ 1.64 odds on Betway — With 69 % of her 2025 matches being straight-set victories, I expect her grass-court aggression to leave Branstine trailing early.

Over 10 aces total @ 2.62 odds on Bet365 — Given Sabalenka’s 3.28 aces per match average, serve stats likely push this market above 8.5 combined.

Over 17.5 games @ 1.666 odds on 1xbet — Sabalenka’s grass matches have trended three-set at Berlin (7‑6,3‑6,7‑6) and tight quarters; expect a tussle in at least one opener before closing out.

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