Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction: The race for the AFC West title getting juicer

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: Prediction for the match on November 16, 2025

On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will play the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Both teams really need to win this game, especially in the race for the AFC West title. The Broncos have won seven games in a row and are 2.5 games ahead of the Chiefs. They want to win their first division title since Peyton Manning's Super Bowl 50 season. After eight years of ups and downs, this is the most important regular season game the Broncos have had in nearly a decade. Stay tuned as we go over the matchup and give you our best bets for this fun game.

Denver Broncos Form and Statistics

The Broncos won their first game of the season against the Tennessee Titans, but then they lost to the Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Chargers. After that, they hit their stride and won six games in a row against the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, and Houston Texans. The Broncos were down 15-7 going into the last quarter of their game against the Texans. They came back strong, scoring 11 points without giving up any to win 18–15 on the road. Denver's offense gained 271 yards, or 4.4 yards per play, and got 15 first downs and two turnovers. On defense, they held Houston to just 268 yards, 15 first downs, and limited them to 3-of-17 on third downs.

Denver Broncos Team News

DE John Franklin-Myers (back) questionable; WR Marvin Mims Jr.(concussion) questionable; RB J.K. Dobbins (foot) questionable; LB Alex Singleton (illness) out

Kansas City Chiefs: Form and Statistics

The Chiefs had a bad start to the 2025 season, going 2-3. They beat the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Giants, but they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Philadelphia Eagles. After that, Kansas City hit their stride and won three games in a row against the Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders. They beat the Commanders 28-7 on October 27, scoring 14 points in the third quarter. The Chiefs' offense gained 432 yards, 148 of which were on the ground. They averaged 6.4 yards per play and got 26 first downs. They did throw two picks and get nine penalties for 95 yards, though. Even though they made these mistakes, the defense kept the Commanders in check.

Kansas City Chiefs: Team News

Defensive end George Karlaftis (thumb) questionable; Running back Isiah Pacheco (knee) questionable; Wide receiver Xavier Worthy (ankle) questionable; Offensive tackle Ethan Driskell (Appendix) NFI-R for Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Tips & Odds

• Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in each of the Broncos' last four games against the Chiefs. He has also posted 50+ receiving yards in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs.
• Bo Nix has been solid too. He’s thrown for 247+ passing yards in three of the Broncos' last four home games. He’s also had 22+ completions in each of the Broncos' last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points). Nix has run for 22+ yards in each of the Broncos' last six games as underdogs. Heading into Week 11, he leads the league in sack percentage (2.8%).
• On the ground, J.K. Dobbins has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 games against division rivals.
• For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in six of the last seven Week 11 games. He’s also gained 64+ receiving yards in each of the last 13 November games as favorites against AFC teams.
• Patrick Mahomes has been on fire too. He’s thrown for 24+ completions in his last six games against the Broncos and 266+ passing yards in each of his last six November games against AFC West teams.
• Marquise Brown has had 25+ rushing and receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 Sunday regular season games as a favorite. Kareem Hunt has rushed for 49+ yards in each of his last five November games as a road favorite. He also leads the league in broken tackle percentage (73.0%) heading into Week 11.

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Match Prediction 16th November 2025

In November games against AFC West teams, the Chiefs have been very good, winning their last ten. They also tend to do well after a tough loss, winning the first quarter in four of their last five games against the Broncos. The Broncos, on the other hand, have had a hard time with the Chiefs. They have lost four of their last five games and haven't covered the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs in AFC West matchups. They also have trouble in the first half, losing nine of their last ten games as underdogs after winning. The Chiefs have had time to rest since their tough loss to Buffalo, in which they gained 305 yards, made 16 first downs, and converted only 3 of 13 third downs. They should be ready for this game after that much time to heal. I'm still with the Chiefs.

Our match prediction is -4.0 Spread Kansas City Chiefs with odds at 1.95 on the 1Xbet bookmaker.

Our betting tip is Under 45.5 Total with odds at 1.90 on the Bet365 bookmaker.

Our final match prediction is the Kansas City Chiefs to win with odds at 1.60 on the Betway bookmaker.